Washington/Moscow, Feb 5 (.) The ending of the final US-Russia arms treaty has led to renewed fears of another decades long nuclear arms race between the two military superpowers, as the agreement lapse allows both Washington and Moscow – whose total arsenal accounts for 90% of all nuclear bombs – with enough leeway to pursue independent nuclear policies with little binding limits.
“The worst case is it spirals and then some unforeseen or foreseeable incident touches off a conflict that escalates rapidly to a nuclear conflict,” warned Thomas Countryman, a former acting US undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, reports CNN.
The treaty in question, New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty), came into effect 15 years ago, back in February 2011 and imposed strict caps on both countries’ strategic nuclear forces.
As per the joint agreement, neither military would be allowed to deploy any more than 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads, 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles and nuclear-capable heavy bombers, as well as 800 deployed and non-deployed launchers.
The agreement further imposed restrictions on the number of Russian ICBMs capable of reaching the US and vice versa.
Originally signed for a 10-year term, New START was extended by five years, once in 2021 for another five years, expiring on February 5, 2026.
Under its terms, the treaty could not be extended again, although Washington and Moscow retained the option of informally continuing to observe its limits.
Some White House officials have argued that the treaty is obsolete, given that it’s framework takes no note of the dramatically changed geopolitical scenario of today, as well as being unreflective of all the present strategic realities.
Critics, including President Donald Trump, have long contended that the agreement unfairly constrained the US while excluding China, which is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal. A 2022 Pentagon report estimated that Beijing could possess as many as 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035 if current trends continue, though currently pose
Trump has shown little alarm over the treaty’s expiration. “If it expires, it expires. We’ll do a better agreement,” he told the New York Times recently. He has also previously floated the idea of resuming US nuclear testing, though no concrete steps have followed.
On Wednesday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested Washington would not agree to maintain New START’s limits, reiterating Trump’s position that any meaningful arms control in the 21st century must include China. “It’s impossible to do something that doesn’t include China because of their vast and rapidly growing stockpile,” Rubio said.
Beijing, however, has consistently rejected trilateral arms control talks, both publicly and in private diplomacy.
Issuing a sharp rebuttal, Russia’s Foreign Ministry said on Wednesday that it had received no reply from the Trump administration to proposals floated last year by Vladimir Putin to continue observing the treaty’s limits for another year. Public statements from US officials, it said, suggest Russia’s ideas were “deliberately left unanswered.”
“This approach seems erroneous and regrettable,” the ministry said, adding that under the current circumstances, Russia assumes both countries are “no longer bound by any obligations” under the treaty and are free to determine their next steps.
According to the Kremlin, under the current conditions, neither party is now longer bound by any obligations under the treaty and are free to choose their next steps, towards which Russia intends to act “responsibly and in a balanced manner.”
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