New Delhi, Feb 25 (.) India’s direct-to-consumer (D2C) e-commerce channel is projected to grow nearly three times faster than traditional online marketplaces, reaching up to USD 60 billion by 2030, according to a McKinsey & Company report released in February 2026.
The report, titled “The great unbundling of Indian e-commerce: MSMEs and the direct-to-consumer revolution,” highlights that India’s e-commerce penetration, currently estimated at 6–8 per cent of total retail, could rise to 9–11 per cent by the end of the decade.
Within this growth, the D2C channel is expected to increase from USD 10–12 billion in 2025 to USD 55–60 billion by 2030.
The analysis notes that micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) are likely to drive nearly half of the incremental growth in e-commerce. India’s retail ecosystem remains deeply fragmented, with nearly 60 million MSMEs contributing close to 30 per cent of national GDP, or roughly USD 1 trillion annually.
According to McKinsey’s MSME survey conducted in November 2025, 53 per cent of small businesses expressed a preference for selling directly through websites and social commerce channels, while 47 per cent favoured marketplace platforms.
The report attributes the shift towards D2C models to factors such as lower platform fees, reduced fulfilment costs, better access to first-party customer data, and greater control over brand identity and consumer experience.
While D2C adoption accelerates, McKinsey indicates that large marketplaces, including Amazon, Flipkart, Meesho, and Myntra, are expected to remain central to India’s digital commerce landscape, with marketplace sales projected to reach USD 90–100 billion by 2030.
Quick commerce is identified as the fastest-growing segment, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 45 per cent, expanding from USD 5–6 billion in 2024 to USD 35–40 billion by 2030.
The report also underscores the rising importance of Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities, which contribute over 60 per cent of India’s e-commerce shipments. By 2030, India could add more than 140 million households earning above USD 10,000 annually, further expanding the digital consumer base.
McKinsey estimates the potential market for modular, unbundled digital commerce solutions tailored to MSMEs at USD 25–30 billion by 2030, representing roughly half of the projected D2C channel size.
. VK VAN .