Tehran, Feb 20 (.) Iran’s brief war with Israel last year exposed significant strains within Iran’s command structure, with reports suggesting that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had become increasingly difficult to reach as hostilities intensified between the two countries, forcing provincial officials to seize greater authority.
In the aftermath of this exposure, Tehran has reportedly moved to tighten its national security architecture and rectify this gap in its theocratic command structure.
The Supreme National Security Council, which for long has been a central decision-making forum in Tehran, has been reinforced and restructured; now spearheaded by senior political figure and Khamenei’s top aide Ali Larijani.
Alongside the council, a new body known as the Defence Council has been established to oversee governance in times of war, in a bid to improve coordination and functioning of civil and military departments during times of crisis.
Earlier this month, veteran security official Ali Shamkhani was appointed secretary of the Defence Council.
A former commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Shamkhani survived what he alleges was an Israeli assassination attempt during last year’s 12-day war.
According to Iranian media outlet Nour News, an outlet affiliated with Iran’s security establishment, his appointment is supposedly intended to “comprehensively strengthen defence preparations” and develop mechanisms to counter emerging threats.
Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said Shamkhani’s appointment signals that Iran is preparing for the possibility of a US decapitation strike – potentially targeting the Supreme Leader himself, reports CNN.
“It’s becoming a … more immediate question, the issue of post-Khamenei succession, and they are getting prepared for that … whether or not that’s going to be the case, it depends on many factors, like the scale of a potential US attack or a campaign.”
As Iranian negotiators engaged with the US in Geneva, Tehran had launched naval drills in the Persian Gulf to demonstrate its disruptive capabilities to Washington’s regional allies.
Iran has previously threatened to shut the Strait multiple times, during
periods of heightened tension with Western powers, and had briefly shut the strait on Tuesday, as a show of force.
The IRGC closed parts of the Strait of Hormuz for a few hours as it conducted naval exercises, according to Iranian media. A critical global trade chokepoint, located between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, this vital passageway controls one-fifth of the daily global oil production, with its mere brief closure leading to a massive uptick in crude prices and congestion among major ports in West Asia.
The manoeuvre – being the first of its kind during drills – is widely seen as a reminder of Iran’s capacity to disrupt global energy flows in the event of war, and what may entail for the global economy should it occur, presenting its control over this vital waterway as a powerful tool of leverage.
Simultaneously, Iran’s navy had conducted joint exercises with Russia in the Gulf of Oman and northern Indian Ocean, practising the retaking of a mock hijacked vessel, according to state media.
The US has responded with a significant show of force. Two aircraft carriers have been deployed to the region this month, and US officials said one shot down an Iranian drone that approached aggressively in the Arabian Sea.
In a separate incident, two IRGC gunboats reportedly approached a US-flagged tanker in the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to board it, according to an American military spokesman.
Against this backdrop of military manoeuvring, observers say Tehran’s actions are intended as a calculated warning. Vali Nasr, a professor at Johns Hopkins University, argues that Iran is seeking to underscore the potential costs of confrontation.
“The Iranian tactic is trying to convince the United States that war is going to be costly,” he said. “This is not going to be a quick operation. The United States will have to calculate those costs before it strikes.”
. . AKU