Arti Bali
New Delhi, Feb 5 (.) The expiration of the New START Treaty as of midnight on February 5 marks a grave moment for international peace and security, raising the prospect of an unconstrained nuclear arms race between the United States and Russia for the first time since the Cold War.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said, “For the first time in more than half a century, we face a world without any binding limits on the strategic nuclear arsenals of the Russian Federation and the United States of America, the two states that possess the overwhelming majority of the global stockpile of nuclear weapons.”
For the first time in more than five decades, there are no formal limits on the long-range nuclear weapons held by the world’s two nuclear superpowers, a situation unseen since 1972, when US President Richard Nixon and Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev signed landmark arms control agreements in Moscow.
Reflecting on decades of arms control efforts, Guterres said, “Throughout the Cold War and in its aftermath, nuclear arms control between these governments helped prevent catastrophe. It built stability and, when combined with other measures, prevented devastating miscalculation. Most importantly, it facilitated the reduction of thousands of nuclear weapons from national arsenals.”
“From the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) to New START, strategic arms control drastically improved the security of all peoples, not least the populations of the United States and the Russian Federation,” he added.
Guterres warned that the collapse of these arrangements comes at a particularly dangerous moment. “This dissolution of decades of achievement could not come at a worse time; the risk of a nuclear weapon being used is the highest in decades,” he said.
The Secretary-General urged the US and Russia to engage in diplomatic talks “to prevent the return to a world of unchecked nuclear proliferation.” He added, “Even in this moment of uncertainty, we must search for hope. This is an opportunity to reset and create an arms control regime fit for a rapidly evolving context,” welcoming statements by both leaders acknowledging “the destabilising impact of a nuclear arms race and the need to prevent the return to a world of unchecked nuclear proliferation.”
Moscow expressed its willingness to temporarily preserve the status quo. Russian President Vladimir Putin was prepared to continue observing New START’s limits for an additional year beyond the treaty’s expiration, provided Washington does the same. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on January 29 that the United States has not yet responded to the proposal.
“The world now looks to the Russian Federation and the United States to translate words into action,” Guterres concluded. “I urge both states to return to the negotiating table without delay and to agree upon a successor framework that restores verifiable limits, reduces risks, and strengthens our common security.”
China has urged Washington to engage. A spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry said Beijing hoped the United States would “actively respond to Russia’s proposal” following New START’s expiration and “truly uphold global strategic stability.”
President Donald Trump has not formally endorsed Putin’s proposal. In a January interview, he downplayed the deadline, saying, “If it expires, it expires,” while insisting that any future agreement would be superior to the current treaty.
Trump has consistently called for broader denuclearization talks that would include China alongside Russia. Beijing has repeatedly rejected that idea, arguing it is unreasonable to expect parity with countries whose nuclear arsenals are far larger.
New START, signed in 2010 by President Barack Obama and then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, caps deployed strategic nuclear warheads at 1,550 per side and limits delivery systems, including land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched missiles, and heavy bombers, to 700.
Meanwhile, Russia has developed new nuclear-capable systems, including the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile, the hypersonic Oreshnik, and the Poseidon nuclear torpedo, which fall outside New START’s framework. Trump has also announced plans for a space-based “Golden Dome” missile defense system, which Moscow argues could destabilize the strategic balance.
At the same time, China’s nuclear arsenal continues to expand without constraints from US–Russian arms control agreements. The Pentagon estimates that China currently has about 600 nuclear warheads and could exceed 1,000 by 2030.
A bipartisan US Congressional commission warned in 2023 that the United States faces an “existential challenge” from two nuclear peers and should prepare for the possibility of simultaneous conflicts with Russia and China. The commission recommended readiness to redeploy warheads removed under New START and currently held in reserve.
Such steps could include reloading warheads onto Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles and Trident D5 submarine-launched missiles, as well as returning roughly 30 B-52 bombers, previously converted to conventional missions, to nuclear roles.
“The warheads are there. The missiles are there. You’re not buying anything new,” said a former senior US nuclear policy official, speaking on condition of anonymity. The official said any increases ordered by Trump would likely be modest.
Others warn that the potential expansion could be significant. Kingston Reif, a former Pentagon official now at RAND, said the United States could potentially double its deployed warheads above New START limits, while Russia could add around 800. Meaningful changes, he noted, would take at least a year.
President Trump had even suggested that the US may resume nuclear testing “on an equal basis,” raising fears of a new and increasingly volatile nuclear era. Although the US has maintained a moratorium on explosive tests since 1992, Trump’s October 2025 statement on Truth Social hinted at responding to other countries’ testing programs, potentially sparking a renewed global arms race.
Only North Korea has tested nuclear weapons in the 21st century. Other nuclear powers, including the US, Russia, China, India, and Pakistan, have largely refrained from testing since the 1990s, relying instead on simulations to maintain and modernise their arsenals.
Arms control advocates also note the financial strain of ongoing US nuclear modernization efforts, which include new submarines, bombers, and intercontinental ballistic missiles. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that modernization and operations will cost nearly USD 1 trillion between 2025 and 2034.
As of January 2025, the US Department of Defense maintained an estimated stockpile of approximately 3,700 nuclear warheads for delivery by ballistic missiles and aircraft. Most of the warheads in the stockpile are not deployed but are stored for potential upload onto missiles and aircraft as necessary.
Approximately 1,770 warheads are currently deployed, including roughly 1,370 strategic warheads on ballistic missiles and another 300 at strategic bomber bases in the United States. An additional 100 tactical bombs are deployed at air bases in Europe. The remaining warheads-approximately 1,930- are in storage as a so-called “hedge” against technical or geopolitical surprises.
. . VAN