Washington, Feb 18 (.) The US may just be edging closer to a potential war-like scenario with Iran, which, as per officials within the Donald Trump administration, could unfold far sooner than the majority of the American public’s expectations.
A US military operation targeting Iran would likely resemble a sustained, weeks-long campaign rather than a limited strike, according to sources familiar with internal deliberations. Unlike last month’s targeted action in Venezuela, any move against Tehran would be broader in scope and could amount to full-fledged war.
As per Axios, officials said this would likely involve close coordination with Israel and extend beyond narrow objectives to strike at core elements of Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure.
Such a conflict would carry sweeping consequences for the Middle East and could shape the remainder of Trump’s presidency. Yet with Congress and much of the public focused on domestic political battles, there has been little sustained debate in Washington about what could become the most consequential US military intervention in the region in more than a decade.
Earlier this year, Trump reportedly came close to authorising strikes against Iran following the killing of thousands of protesters by security forces. When that window passed, the White House shifted to a dual-track approach: pursuing renewed nuclear negotiations while simultaneously expanding the US military presence in the region.
That build-up has been extensive. The Pentagon has deployed two aircraft carriers, roughly a dozen warships, hundreds of fighter jets and multiple air defence systems to the Middle East, with additional assets still enroute.
More than 150 US military cargo flights have transported weapons systems and ammunition to the region. In the past 24 hours alone, around 50 additional fighter jets – including F-35s, F-22s and F-16s – have reportedly been dispatched.
The military surge has raised expectations about the scale of action should diplomacy collapse. Officials acknowledge that prospects for a deal currently appear slim.
On Tuesday, Trump’s top aides Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Geneva for three hours of talks.
While both sides called the discussions constructive and making progress, US officials privately conceded that major gaps remain, making reaching any kind of a breakthrough difficult, deadlocking both parties.
Vice President JD Vance said the talks “went well” in some respects but made clear that Trump has established red lines Iran has yet to accept. He added that diplomacy could reach its “natural end” if those conditions are not met.
The White House has reportedly given Iran two weeks to return with a detailed proposal. The timeline has drawn comparisons to last June, when Trump publicly set a two-week decision window before ultimately authorising ‘Operation Midnight Hammer’ days later.
Israeli officials are preparing for the possibility of war within days, according to two sources, with some in the Israeli government advocating a maximalist campaign that would target not only Iran’s nuclear and missile programs but also seek to further weaken its hold on power or, better yet, completely destabilise the regime itself.
Some US officials, including Senator Lindsey Graham, have suggested strikes could still be weeks away, while others indicate the window for a ‘kinetic attack’ may be much shorter.
One advisor close to Trump said the president is growing impatient, estimating a high likelihood of “kinetic action” in the coming weeks if negotiations fail; which looks to be increasingly likely.
Trump’s significant military deployment and escalating rhetoric have left little room for him to retreat without extracting some substantial concessions from Tehran.
Iranian leaders have publicly insisted they will not negotiate under threat of military action. The standoff has dragged on for years, leading many Americans to become desensitized to periodic escalations.
However, officials caution that the scale and immediacy of the current buildup signal that the risk of imminent conflict is higher than at many previous junctures.
With no clear evidence of a diplomatic breakthrough on the horizon and military preparations accelerating, the possibility of a major US-Iran confrontation appears increasingly real.
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